Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21cf…eebf politics 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%12W / 50L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$300per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$13
politics 17% −$7
other 6% +$17
economics 2% $0
sports 1% +$21
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +4.3% -5.7% 6% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 49 +0.5% -9.0% 20% 14% -8.3%
all 62 +0.1% -9.4% 19% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 11% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 11% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 11% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 11% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses12 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage593d
Avg bet$300
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 49¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $19 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 31 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $112 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 5? May 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $234 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $114 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $7 +$6 +89%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $11 +$8 +75%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 06 $19 +$11 +57%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 06 $21 +$21 +96%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $50 +$3 +5%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $24 +$23 +96%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $25 $0 +0%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 23 $25 +$32 +132%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $93 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 25m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $8 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $24 23h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $24 25h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $27 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $10 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 15d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.99 · official $51.99 (match) · 262 history records