Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x21ce…7678 other 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 554d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$86 (-1%) realized −$44 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 53L
Whale WR7%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$22
other 31% −$90
politics 19% −$1
crypto 3% −$14
finance 2% −$5
culture 1% −$14
world 1% −$6
tech 1% +$11
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 14% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 14% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 25 -11.0% -19.4% 4% 0% -13.5%
all 72 -8.8% -17.4% 26% 12% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 12% -9.9%
10% -25.3% 4% -18.5%
15% -32.6% 3% -26.4%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 7% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

554d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$44
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 75
History coverage554d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $24 $50 +$26 (+106%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 23¢ $79 $23 −$56 (-71%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? Jun 29 $2 $0 -7%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? Jun 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Jun 29 $15 $0 -1%
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? Jun 29 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, Jun 29 $21 −$2 -7%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in Jun 29 $32 −$1 -3%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 11 $6 −$5 -80%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? May 11 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? May 11 $49 $0 -1%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $138 −$3 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $53 −$1 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $19 −$4 -21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 11 $22 −$1 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $91 $0 -0%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $14 −$2 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 11 $35 $0 -1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 11 $24 −$1 -3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 11 $29 −$1 -3%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 11 $18 −$1 -5%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 11 $6 −$3 -42%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 11 $6 −$3 -55%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 11 $57 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 05 $13 −$4 -32%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 03 $20 −$5 -24%
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31? Jan 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 11 $60 +$4 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Sep 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 21 $3 +$1 +39%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Augus Sep 21 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31? Aug 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July? Jul 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July? Jul 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? Jul 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July? Jul 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Solana Up or Down on June 29? Jul 13 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 29 $6 +$2 +25%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 29 $72 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 3m
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3m
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 11m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 17m
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? SELL Yes 76¢ $15 28m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 39m
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? SELL No 65¢ $13 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, SELL Yes 39¢ $20 53m
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 41¢ $20 53m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, BUY Yes 42¢ $21 1h
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? BUY No 69¢ $14 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 59¢ $29 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL Yes 64¢ $32 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 65¢ $16 1h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in BUY Yes 65¢ $11 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 60¢ $30 2h
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m SELL Yes 1¢ $1 48d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? SELL No 52¢ $26 48d
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 48d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $86 in May? BUY No 54¢ $27 48d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and SELL Yes 5¢ $5 48d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and BUY Yes 6¢ $3 48d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and BUY Yes 8¢ $4 48d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and SELL No 90¢ $45 48d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and BUY No 90¢ $21 48d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and BUY No 90¢ $24 48d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and SELL No 90¢ $35 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.66 · official $72.66 (match) · 230 history records