Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:54:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ce…645c other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$26 (+2%) realized +$33 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$57
14 days+$15
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$6
world 9% −$23
weather 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.7% -20.1% 56% 44% -3.0%
≤30d 26 +50.8% +36.4% 46% 35% -10.8%
≤90d 26 +50.8% +36.4% 46% 35% -10.8%
all 28 +43.0% +29.4% 43% 32% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.4% 32% -12.4%
10% +17.0% 18% -20.7%
15% +5.7% 11% -28.4%
20% -4.7% 4% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +116% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage136d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? No 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $203 −$22 -11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $105 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $101 +$26 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $98 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $104 +$50 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $126 −$20 -16%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $49 +$15 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $73 −$58 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $85 +$48 +57%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $99 −$26 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $24 +$9 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $162 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $96 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $31 +$4 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $36 −$9 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $57 +$11 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $28 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $12 −$10 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Feb 06 $146 −$23 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $151 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $130 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $14 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 18¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 10h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $111 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $21 19h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $83 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 46h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 46h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 47h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $71 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $38 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $93 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $110 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $58 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $11 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $36 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $69 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 383 history records