Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x21ca…3748 sports 606 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$77,213 (-17%) realized −$77,283 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%334W / 271L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$745per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$6,135est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$30,974
other 1% +$435
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -9.6% -18.2% 43% 39% -5.8%
≤30d 158 -11.9% -20.2% 51% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 605 -8.5% -17.3% 55% 45% -15.4%
all 605 -8.5% -17.3% 55% 45% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 45% -15.4%
10% -25.2% 31% -23.5%
15% ← realistic here -32.4% 19% -30.9%
20% -39.0% 11% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$353 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized−$77,283
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses334 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$6,135
Open positions1
Markets (closed)605 / 606
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$745
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Gonzalo Villanueva 81¢ 100¢ $301 $371 +$70 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $105 −$4 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$115 +57%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $37 −$37 -99%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $212 +$99 +47%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $380 +$89 +24%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $156 −$154 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $392 +$144 +37%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $142 −$140 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $458 +$76 +17%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $103 +$355 +344%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $196 −$76 -39%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $232 −$126 -54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $105 −$10 -10%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $59 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $117 +$106 +91%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $78 −$77 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $45 −$45 -99%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $94 +$30 +32%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $73 −$72 -98%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $83 −$81 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $76 +$7 +9%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $55 +$21 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $73 −$73 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 09 $72 −$70 -98%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $66 +$6 +9%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $55 +$11 +20%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $53 −$52 -99%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $252 −$249 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $309 −$157 -51%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $201 +$41 +20%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $389 −$385 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $327 +$72 +22%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $101 +$25 +25%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $170 −$2 -1%
Libema Open, Qualification: James McCabe vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 07 $359 −$55 -15%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 07 $309 +$28 +9%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $264 +$245 +93%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $50 +$7 +13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $101 +$38 +38%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$10 +20%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $102 −$7 -7%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $281 +$112 +40%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $213 +$68 +32%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $145 +$67 +46%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 06 $132 +$14 +10%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $107 +$24 +23%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Dominika Salkova Jun 04 $41 −$41 -98%
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 04 $36 +$5 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $195 −$159 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 67¢ $3 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 83¢ $10 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 77¢ $50 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 85¢ $100 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 77¢ $67 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 73¢ $18 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 87¢ $53 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Juan Bautista Torres 14¢ $76 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 46¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $101 2h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 60¢ $20 3h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 68¢ $111 3h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 80¢ $10 3h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 76¢ $20 3h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 76¢ $20 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $317 3h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 82¢ $23 3h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 81¢ $201 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 86¢ $17 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $20 3h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 100¢ $256 3h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 92¢ $50 4h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto SELL Matias Soto 84¢ $56 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $105 4h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 89¢ $20 4h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 59¢ $20 4h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 50¢ $20 4h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 58¢ $101 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.55 · official $370.55 (match) · 3500 history records