Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ca…450a other 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 187d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 186d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,274 (+3%) realized +$2,274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate36%94W / 167L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit1%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$854
14 days−$15
30 days+$488
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$389
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -77.0% -79.2% 10% 5% +45.3%
≤30d 37 -50.5% -55.2% 30% 22% -2.7%
≤90d 111 -33.2% -39.6% 23% 18% -7.6%
all 261 -9.6% -18.2% 36% 25% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 25% -9.1%
10% -26.0% 20% -17.8%
15% -33.2% 16% -25.7%
20% -39.7% 13% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$110 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses94 / 167
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)261 / 242
History coverage187d ⚠
Avg bet$311
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit1%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 261 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $1,106 +$74 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $288 +$795 +276%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $20 −$8 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $82 −$68 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $256 +$47 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $171 −$143 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $712 −$700 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $650 +$72 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $596 +$50 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $531 +$65 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $450 +$85 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $443 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $357 +$89 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $356 +$205 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $190 −$27 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $45 −$42 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $165 +$10 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $249 +$31 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $245 +$10 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $123 −$41 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $1 $0 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $21 −$10 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $182 −$162 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $377 −$71 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $278 −$53 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $966 −$43 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 09 $212 +$89 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $201 +$21 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $107 +$440 +410%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1,180 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,106 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $795 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $36 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $147 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $101 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $282 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $11 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $20 8d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $14 9d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $82 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $57 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $24 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $40 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $46 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $41 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $28 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $34 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 12d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records