Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x21ca…d7ce world 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,722 (+24%) realized +$3,664 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,113per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,748
7 days+$1,748
14 days+$1,572
30 days+$3,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% +$3,266
sports 2% +$514
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+69.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.2% +50.4% 100% 100% +50.4%
≤30d 8 +77.5% +60.6% 75% 62% +16.3%
≤90d 9 +87.5% +69.6% 78% 67% +19.7%
all 9 +87.5% +69.6% 78% 67% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.6% 67% +19.7%
10% +53.4% 67% +8.2%
15% +38.6% 67% -2.2%
20% +25.0% 67% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$558 vs −$93 · ×5.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.91 per $1 lost it wins $20.91
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$4,102
Realized+$3,664
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage76d
Avg bet$1,113
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $3,655 $3,678 +$23 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $200 $226 +$26 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 43¢ 46¢ $129 $136 +$8 (+6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $56 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 19 $2,641 +$1,748 +66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $6,133 −$176 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 05 $135 −$11 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1,450 +$87 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $50 +$27 +54%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 27 $421 +$1,035 +246%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 23 $250 +$272 +109%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $150 +$225 +150%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 09 $307 +$514 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $390 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2,720 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $545 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $129 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $200 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $418 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $294 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $264 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $214 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $0 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $16 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $307 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $0 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $550 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $121 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $54 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $347 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $41 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $41 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 62¢ $136 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,102.45 · official $4,105.96 (match) · 108 history records