Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
21 0x21c7…0643 tech 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-23%) realized −$133 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 301d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$135
tech 21% −$1
other 18% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 2 -49.3% -54.1% 50% 0% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.1% 0% -44.5%
10% -58.5% 0% -49.8%
15% -62.5% 0% -54.6%
20% -66.2% 0% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$138 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$133
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage301d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 88¢ 87¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above $114K on August 21 at 4PM ET? Aug 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? Aug 20 $212 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 88¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $103 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin above $114K on August 21 at 4PM ET? BUY Yes 60¢ $138 300d
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? BUY Yes 80¢ $112 301d
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? SELL No 20¢ $75 301d
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? BUY No 27¢ $100 301d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.79 · official $222.79 (match) · 9 history records