Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21c6…22ce other 26 markets active 6d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$210 (-98%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 102d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$98
crypto 32% −$68
world 17% −$35
sports 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 18 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 26 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage102d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 5d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 3 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 43d
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 6 - 4 Paris Saint-Germain FC? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 43d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 43d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 43d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 43d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 43d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $5 107d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 107d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $3 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 107d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $15 107d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $10 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records