Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21c5…78dd crypto 102 markets active 5d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-3%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%47W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 5 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 0% -15.5%
≤90d 74 -5.1% -14.2% 43% 4% -14.1%
all 102 -3.9% -13.0% 46% 3% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -12.9%
10% -21.3% 2% -21.2%
15% -28.9% 1% -28.8%
20% -35.9% 1% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses47 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage86d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 23 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 23 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 23 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 22 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 22 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 22 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Mar 22 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 20 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 20 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 20 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 20 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 20 $4 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $4 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 85d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 291 history records