Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
21 0x21c1…692c other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,590 (+23%) realized +$8,390 · open +$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate45%69W / 85L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days+$230
14 days+$230
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$7,892
sports 22% +$692
world 5% +$156
finance 1% −$131
politics 0% −$79
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$13
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤30d 2 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% -33.8%
≤90d 19 -33.7% -40.0% 16% 16% -32.6%
all 154 -0.3% -9.8% 45% 40% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 40% +11.2%
10% -18.4% 34% +0.6%
15% -26.3% 31% -9.1%
20% -33.5% 25% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +13% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$80 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$1,944
Realized+$8,390
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses69 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)154 / 159
History coverage280d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $494 $653 +$159 (+32%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 76¢ $500 $576 +$76 (+15%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 45¢ $500 $469 −$31 (-6%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $235 $229 −$6 (-3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 34¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $505 +$230 +46%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $510 −$500 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Apr 28 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $91 +$15 +16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 02 $248 −$85 -34%
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? Apr 01 $78 −$78 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $144 −$4 -3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 29 $87 −$50 -57%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 29 $544 −$8 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $30 −$16 -53%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) Mar 27 $1,100 $0 +0%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27? Mar 27 $61 −$21 -34%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $20 +$7 +36%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5) Mar 26 $550 −$11 -2%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 26 $552 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 26 $360 −$35 -10%
Texas Longhorns vs. Purdue Boilermakers Mar 25 $556 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 25 $380 −$132 -35%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 24 $50 $0 -1%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? Mar 24 $50 −$7 -14%
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators Mar 22 $340 −$21 -6%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $2 $0 +19%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 22 $125 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 21 $100 $0 -0%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 21 $444 $0 +0%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Mar 20 $780 −$130 -17%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 20 $600 $0 -0%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 20 $672 $0 +0%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 19 $25 $0 -1%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Mar 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Mar 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $3 +$3 +85%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 17 $50 −$2 -4%
No one announced as next James Bond? Mar 17 $50 −$2 -5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 17 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 12? Mar 17 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $238 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $16 12d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $344 14d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $155 14d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 14d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $505 14d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 14d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $510 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $53 47d
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? BUY No 48¢ $1,016 55d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? BUY No 65¢ $50 79d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? SELL No 100¢ $106 79d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-04? BUY No 86¢ $91 79d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 10¢ $39 81d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 30¢ $125 81d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 31¢ $248 81d
Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? BUY Yes 26¢ $78 82d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $140 85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $144 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $40 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $33 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 85d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 67¢ $536 85d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $544 85d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 87d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 87d
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) SELL Duke Blue Devils 50¢ $550 87d
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) BUY Duke Blue Devils 50¢ $550 87d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY No 76¢ $50 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,943.98 · official $1,943.98 (match) · 393 history records