Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21c0…4827 other 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$16,830 (+45%) realized +$16,868 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate60%48W / 32L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$20,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$16,594
14 days+$16,594
30 days+$16,594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$75
politics 31% +$16,723
world 17% +$407
crypto 8% −$102
economics 3% +$56
tech 3% −$382
sports 0% +$5
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +165.8% +140.5% 100% 50% +281.0%
≤30d 2 +165.8% +140.5% 100% 50% +281.0%
≤90d 48 -11.7% -20.1% 46% 21% +114.0%
all 80 -3.7% -12.9% 60% 29% +82.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 29% +82.1%
10% -21.2% 14% +64.7%
15% -28.9% 6% +48.8%
20% -35.8% 6% +34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +136% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +101% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$369 vs −$28 · ×12.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.48 per $1 lost it wins $19.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$20,248
Realized+$16,868
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses48 / 32
Open positions21
Markets (closed)80 / 101
History coverage531d
Avg bet$371
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,521 $3,515 −$5 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $3,100 $3,083 −$17 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $2,847 $2,848 +$2 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $2,633 $2,636 +$3 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,886 $1,885 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,077 $1,077 −$0 (-0%)
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? No 90¢ 92¢ $900 $925 +$25 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $900 $905 +$5 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $840 $840 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $527 $517 −$10 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $490 $490 −$0 (-0%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $460 $455 −$5 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $364 $366 +$2 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $255 $257 +$1 (+0%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $112 $110 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $87 $87 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ $40 $3 −$37 (-93%)
Will Strava not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes $3 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 25 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 25 $5,128 +$16,591 +324%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Negative GDP growth in 2026? Apr 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $23 −$1 -4%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Apr 22 $109 −$59 -54%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 22 $200 −$13 -7%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Apr 22 $440 +$48 +11%
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Apr 22 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 22 $246 +$7 +3%
Mistral AI IPO before 2027? Apr 22 $300 +$9 +3%
Stripe IPO before 2027? Apr 22 $200 +$49 +24%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Apr 22 $300 −$3 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 22 $374 +$31 +8%
Anduril IPO before 2027? Apr 19 $140 +$42 +30%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Apr 19 $96 +$2 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 19 $300 −$4 -1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Google have the top AI model on February 28? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Apr 15 $200 −$31 -15%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump out as President by June 30? Apr 13 $619 −$3 -0%
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? Apr 10 $270 −$6 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? Apr 10 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $62 −$1 -2%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $200 −$11 -5%
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30? Apr 10 $194 −$14 -7%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 10 $323 −$34 -11%
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on February 28? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by January 31? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $12 +$18 +156%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Apr 07 $20 +$16 +82%
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? Apr 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $111 +$3 +3%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Apr 07 $148 +$52 +35%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 07 $200 +$9 +4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? Apr 07 $200 +$14 +7%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 07 $200 +$22 +11%
Tulsi Gabbard out by March 31? Apr 07 $200 +$37 +19%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jan 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? Jan 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 10m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 38m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $3,100 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 16¢ $104 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $700 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $1,704 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $300 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $600 1h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $840 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $13 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $460 1h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $112 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1,889 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $2,851 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $491 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3,523 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $365 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $377 3d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $936 3d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $205 3d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $11 3d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $45 3d
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $639 3d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,247.73 · official $20,247.73 (match) · 506 history records