Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

21 0x21c0…ea14 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$256 (+64%) realized +$256 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day18.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-2.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+8.2%	-2.1%	44%	39%	+36.5%
≤30d	18	+8.2%	-2.1%	44%	39%	+36.5%
≤90d	18	+8.2%	-2.1%	44%	39%	+36.5%
all	18	+8.2%	-2.1%	44%	39%	+36.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.1%	39%	+36.5%
10%	-11.5%	33%	+23.4%
15%	-20.1%	22%	+11.5%
20%	-27.9%	22%	+0.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +48% → late -31% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$11 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$256

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day18.7

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$9	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$7	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$24	-92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 27	$31	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$24	+91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 27	$10	−$4	-43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Jun 27	$10	−$1	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$10	-40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$5	+96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$1	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$15	+291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Jun 27	$31	−$25	-80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 27	$25	+$1	+5%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 26	$102	+$254	+248%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$34	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$25	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Down	84¢	$33	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Up	4¢	$2	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$26	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$26	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$25	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	SELL Up	41¢	$5	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	41¢	$5	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$49	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$5	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	SELL Up	16¢	$6	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$5	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	SELL Down	22¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records