Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21bf…cc65 crypto 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,889 (-32%) realized −$6,384 · open +$1,495
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%21W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,170
14 days−$3,807
30 days−$5,540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$4,110
other 30% −$875
sports 0% +$940
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +23.4% +11.6% 25% 22% -44.0%
≤30d 116 -14.3% -22.5% 18% 17% -49.8%
≤90d 116 -14.3% -22.5% 18% 17% -49.8%
all 116 -14.3% -22.5% 18% 17% -49.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 17% -49.8%
10% -29.9% 17% -54.6%
15% -36.7% 17% -59.0%
20% -42.9% 16% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$109 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$3,460
Realized−$6,384
Unrealized+$1,495
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses21 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage19d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $1,700 $3,457 +$1,757 (+103%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-81%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $256 $1 −$255 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$107 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $463 −$455 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $156 −$146 -94%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$948 +1843%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $157 −$150 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $206 −$22 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $227 −$219 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $188 +$394 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $284 −$267 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $316 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $421 −$395 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $157 +$341 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $159 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$251 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $156 +$212 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $106 +$215 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $711 −$700 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $611 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $864 −$830 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 04 $354 +$515 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $211 −$170 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$87 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 04 $157 −$82 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 04 $160 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 04 $56 +$112 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $206 −$50 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 04 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 04 $159 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 04 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 04 $115 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 03 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 6m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 35m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 42m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $711 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $160 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $305 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 27¢ $158 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $53 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $183 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,459.70 · official $3,459.70 (match) · 346 history records