Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21be…0b64 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-10%) realized −$145 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$102
other 27% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 44% -13.8%
≤30d 41 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 41 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 44% -13.8%
all 41 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 44% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 44% -13.8%
10% -22.1% 44% -22.0%
15% -29.6% 44% -29.6%
20% -36.5% 37% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$145
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage5d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$91 +445%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 +$23 +57%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 +$30 +145%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$20 +101%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 +$17 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $31 +$39 +129%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 +$46 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 −$40 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 +$20 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $51 −$46 -90%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$28 -92%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 +$41 +83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $41 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $41 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $40 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $50 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $59 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $41 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $51 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $18 7h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 40¢ $20 8h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $20 8h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $30 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 13h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $25 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 44h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 44h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $30 44h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $31 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $28 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 72¢ $20 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $41 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $40 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $25 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.95 · official $191.95 (match) · 65 history records