Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:06:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x21bd…d927 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+3%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR89%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$743
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +89%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.1% +7.8% 89% 89% +44.3%
≤30d 9 +19.1% +7.8% 89% 89% +44.3%
≤90d 9 +19.1% +7.8% 89% 89% +44.3%
all 9 +19.1% +7.8% 89% 89% +44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 89% +44.3%
10% -2.5% 44% +30.5%
15% -12.0% 33% +17.9%
20% -20.6% 33% +6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$52 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.41 per $1 lost it wins $15.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $997 +$742 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$13 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $578 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $418 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records