Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21bd…c7af sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-14%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.1% -20.4% 43% 43% +6.6%
≤30d 7 -12.1% -20.4% 43% 43% +6.6%
≤90d 7 -12.1% -20.4% 43% 43% +6.6%
all 7 -12.1% -20.4% 43% 43% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 43% +6.6%
10% -28.0% 43% -3.6%
15% -35.0% 43% -12.9%
20% -41.4% 43% -21.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$11 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$35 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $19 +$16 +83%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9 +$10 +109%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $54 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $28 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $7 7h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $19 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 47¢ $9 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 38h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.38 · official $52.38 (match) · 11 history records