trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -7.7% | -16.5% | 50% | 50% | -11.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +1.3% | -8.3% | 75% | 50% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -24.7% | -31.8% | 47% | 24% | -9.9% |
| all | 18 | -23.4% | -30.7% | 44% | 22% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.7% | 22% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -37.3% | 17% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -43.4% | 11% | -26.5% |
| 20% | -48.9% | 0% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 67¢ | $324 | $311 | −$13 (-4%) |
| Will USD/KRW hit 1000 (Low) in 2026? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $198 | $198 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 82¢ | $100 | $103 | +$3 (+3%) |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 75¢ | $99 | $98 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $91 | $76 | −$15 (-16%) |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December? | Yes | 31¢ | 34¢ | $64 | $70 | +$6 (+10%) |
| Lee Jae-myung impeached before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will USD/KRW hit 1100 (Low) in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 80¢ | $46 | $41 | −$6 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 14 | $271 | +$69 | +26% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $200 | −$82 | -41% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m | Jun 03 | $30 | +$4 | +14% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | Jun 01 | $258 | +$16 | +6% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% before 2027? | May 18 | $2 | +$1 | +37% |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027? | May 16 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 14? | May 15 | $82 | +$38 | +46% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 14? | May 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o | May 14 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 14? | May 14 | $25 | −$25 | -98% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 14? | May 14 | $7 | −$6 | -90% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 14? | May 14 | $6 | −$4 | -64% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: May | May 12 | $112 | −$3 | -3% |
| Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? | May 12 | $76 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 202 | May 07 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -58% |
| Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship? | Apr 13 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Jan 15 | $80 | −$2 | -2% |