Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21ba…8d60 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,512 (-1%) realized −$1,505 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$970per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$810now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$42
30 days−$1,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$10
politics 34% −$49
sports 6% −$1,502
economics 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
culture 2% −$3
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 +0.3% -9.3% 12% 8% -12.7%
≤90d 115 -2.1% -11.5% 10% 6% -10.8%
all 116 -2.1% -11.4% 9% 6% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 6% -10.8%
10% -19.9% 6% -19.3%
15% -27.7% 6% -27.1%
20% -34.8% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,276) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$18 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$810
Realized−$1,505
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage91d
Avg bet$970
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $558 $558 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $203 $203 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $57 $50 −$7 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,651 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,596 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 10 $668 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $610 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $2,102 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,835 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $66 +$64 +97%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,781 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $718 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $227 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $379 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $368 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $2,732 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $306 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $304 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,731 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $676 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $2,065 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $792 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 21 $1,384 −$1,384 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $59 +$40 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $30 +$59 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $558 1h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $539 16h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $540 19h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $557 21h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $558 22h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $517 22h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $518 26h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $546 41h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $546 45h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $659 45h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $589 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $519 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $519 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $560 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $561 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $203 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $777 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $778 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $635 5d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $636 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $744 6d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $745 6d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $667 6d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $668 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $812 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $813 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $633 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $634 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $610 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.18 · official $810.18 (match) · 338 history records