Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:19:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21b7…6834 sports 1012 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,285 (-16%) realized −$3,285 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%488W / 523L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,628
7 days−$2,765
14 days−$2,765
30 days−$2,846
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$2,181
crypto 28% −$1,259
other 16% +$157
weather 5% −$329
politics 0% −$4
world 0% +$4
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -21.0% -28.5% 68% 23% -22.6%
≤30d 71 -15.2% -23.3% 55% 39% -22.4%
≤90d 1004 -11.8% -20.2% 48% 38% -20.5%
all 1011 -12.0% -20.4% 48% 38% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 38% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 31% -28.2%
15% -35.0% 27% -35.1%
20% -41.3% 21% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses488 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1011 / 1012
History coverage95d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1011 Trades
no open positions (149 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $275 +$35 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $241 +$15 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $232 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $221 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $204 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $192 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $151 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $1,005 +$71 +7%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $482 −$480 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $471 +$19 +4%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,509 −$1,267 -84%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,211 +$533 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $503 −$232 -46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,304 +$156 +12%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $682 −$484 -71%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $624 +$59 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $551 +$45 +8%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $551 +$28 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $140 −$138 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 25 $20 $0 -1%
Dallas Wings vs. New York Liberty May 24 $6 +$14 +223%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fina May 24 $96 −$11 -11%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega - Map 2 Winner May 24 $15 +$4 +25%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner May 24 $71 +$12 +18%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega - Map 1 Winner May 24 $12 −$5 -41%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 24 $5 +$2 +37%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 24 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $40 −$10 -25%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $11 −$5 -46%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 24 $30 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $20 +$4 +21%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner May 24 $15 −$8 -54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 3 Winner May 24 $9 +$16 +172%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $11 +$11 +103%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $6 +$8 +137%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 May 23 $6 +$4 +73%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 54¢ $115 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $275 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $241 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $250 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $232 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $224 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $221 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $217 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $219 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $192 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,004 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1,005 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 89¢ $482 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo SELL TDK 100¢ $489 3h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 96¢ $471 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FOKUS 12¢ $227 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 79¢ $1,509 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $1,744 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 69¢ $1,211 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 44¢ $271 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 80¢ $503 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,304 14h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $197 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $113.71 · 2492 history records