Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21b7…d6d1 other 30 markets active 2d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$250 (-26%) realized −$250 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$305
14 days−$267
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$74
other 37% −$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -33.8% -40.1% 22% 22% -48.0%
≤30d 30 -16.7% -24.7% 33% 27% -34.7%
≤90d 30 -16.7% -24.7% 33% 27% -34.7%
all 30 -16.7% -24.7% 33% 27% -34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.7% 27% -34.7%
10% -31.9% 17% -40.9%
15% -38.5% 13% -46.6%
20% -44.5% 10% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage8d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$74 -72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 −$7 -15%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$42 +42%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 -5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$6 +237%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$26 +26%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -24%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $25 −$2 -9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$5 +19%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +357%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -59%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $29 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $43 4d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International SELL GamerLegion 94¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $51 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 68¢ $10 5d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 70¢ $101 5d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 6d
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the England vs Croatia FI SELL No 72¢ $3 6d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $4 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 79¢ $101 6d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 94¢ $10 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $51 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $15 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $13 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 26¢ $15 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records