Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21b6…e2cb crypto 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$14 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%64W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day71.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$13
weather 1% +$11
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 35% -11.0%
≤30d 118 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 35% -11.0%
≤90d 118 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 35% -11.0%
all 118 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 35% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 35% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 24% -19.6%
15% -24.3% 20% -27.3%
20% -31.7% 14% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses64 / 54
Open positions7
Markets (closed)118 / 125
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day71.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 81¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+2406%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June? No 98¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$25 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$11 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$2 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 0m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.37 · official $17.37 (match) · 535 history records