Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21b4…1f06
other · 1513 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$1,511 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$300 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,725
Realized+$300
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1503 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1504 / 1513
History coverage27d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 9 History 1504 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$218
14 days−$66
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Carell attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 100¢ 100¢ $874 $876 +$2 (+0%)
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 100¢ 100¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Will Garrett Wilson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 100¢ 100¢ $152 $152 +$1 (+0%)
Game Handicap: Odo (-1.5) vs Harimoto (+1.5) Harimoto 100¢ 100¢ $131 $131 −$0 (-0%)
Will Selena Gomez attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 100¢ 100¢ $123 $123 +$0 (+0%)
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 100¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be 1+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? Over 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 100¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $215 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $159 $0 +0%
Harry Souttar: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Arda Güler: 4+ shots Jun 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 1+ shots Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will 50 Cent attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $63 $0 +0%
Kenan Yıldız: 3+ shots Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ shots Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ shots Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will there be 6+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $896 +$1 +0%
Will there be 2+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $363 +$1 +0%
Will there be 4+ buzzer beaters during the 2026 Men's NBA Finals? Jun 14 $355 +$1 +0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 2+ assists Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Cristian Volpato: 4+ goals + assists Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Tete Yengi: 3+ goals Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Ajdin Hrustic: 2+ goals Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Arda Güler: 2+ goals Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Yunus Akgün: 3+ goals Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lionel Messi attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $321 +$1 +0%
Deniz Gül: 3+ goals Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 3+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Kenan Yıldız: 3+ goals Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Awer Mabil: 2+ goals Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Mathew Leckie: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
İrfan Can Kahveci: 2+ goals Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
İrfan Can Kahveci: 3+ goals Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bad Bunny attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Will any player score 50+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $145 $0 +0%
Will any player score 60+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $398 +$1 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $999 +$1 +0%
Ché Adams: 1+ assists Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 1+ assists Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Aaron Hickey: 1+ assists Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ assists Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Lawrence Shankland: 2+ assists Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Aaron Hickey: 2+ assists Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 33% +$225
other 33% +$203
politics 21% +$139
world 6% +$42
finance 2% +$13
tech 2% +$12
crypto 1% +$5
economics 1% +$4
culture 1% +$10
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? BUY Over 100¢ $30 11m
Game Handicap: Odo (-1.5) vs Harimoto (+1.5) BUY Harimoto 100¢ $131 18m
Harry Souttar: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Arda Güler: 4+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $49 1h
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $96 1h
Will Steve Carell attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $874 1h
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $82 1h
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $174 1h
Will Garrett Wilson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $152 1h
Will Selena Gomez attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $123 1h
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 100¢ $50 2h
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 100¢ $215 2h
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $997 2h
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Kenan Yıldız: 2+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Kenan Yıldız: 3+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $30 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $30 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $200 3h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $30 3h
Will Türkiye go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 100¢ $159 3h
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $999 3h
Cristian Volpato: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $30 3h
Ferdi Kadıoğlu: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $32 3h
Tete Yengi: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
Nishan Velupillay: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 493 -0.1% -9.6% 100% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1504 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1504 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
all 1504 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,725.15 · official $1,725.15 (match) · 3500 history records