Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21b3…2706 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-3%) realized −$40 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$6
sports 42% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +4.1% -5.8% 50% 0% -5.8%
≤90d 7 -41.7% -47.2% 14% 0% -13.4%
all 7 -41.7% -47.2% 14% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.2% 0% -13.4%
10% -52.3% 0% -21.7%
15% -56.9% 0% -29.2%
20% -61.1% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$22 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage86d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $244 $239 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) Jun 02 $474 +$40 +8%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? May 29 $474 −$1 -0%
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) May 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) Apr 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $244 1h
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-1.5) BUY FK Bodø/Glimt 92¢ $474 21d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $472 21d
Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $474 21d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Talaea El Gaish SC 3¢ $15 42d
Spread: Tala'ea El Gaish SC (-2.5) BUY Talaea El Gaish SC 3¢ $14 42d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 42d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $9 42d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 42d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 42d
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) BUY Gwangju FC 3¢ $14 57d
Spread: Gwangju FC (-1.5) BUY Gwangju FC 3¢ $13 57d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 57d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 57d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 57d
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 57d
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 44¢ $9 85d
Valorant: ARETE vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY ARETE 42¢ $21 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.07 · official $241.41 (match) · 19 history records