Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21b3…8110 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$232 (+15%) realized +$229 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$56
14 days+$221
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$222
sports 35% +$4
tech 2% −$4
world 1% −$10
weather 1% −$10
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -18.1% -25.9% 40% 40% -3.8%
≤30d 57 -3.9% -13.1% 42% 42% +5.0%
≤90d 57 -3.9% -13.1% 42% 42% +5.0%
all 57 -3.9% -13.1% 42% 42% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 42% +5.0%
10% -21.4% 39% -5.1%
15% -29.0% 39% -14.3%
20% -35.9% 33% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$13 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$229
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions10
Markets (closed)57 / 67
History coverage30d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 49¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 61¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 39¢ 37¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $60 +$29 +49%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $82 +$40 +49%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 +$62 +151%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $84 +$107 +128%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $32 −$29 -89%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $40 +$34 +85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $17 −$3 -19%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -90%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +47%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 +$26 +136%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$33 +164%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +75%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $27 +$16 +61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$18 +70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$61 +138%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +72%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $58 +$58 +100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$6 +547%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +225%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $29 +$16 +56%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$23 +104%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 +$7 +104%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -35%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $45 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $41 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $32 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $35 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $90 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $60 17h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $40 18h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $41 29h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 29h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $26 41h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 41h
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $38 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $82 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $41 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $84 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 7¢ $3 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $32 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 18¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 21¢ $17 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $40 3d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.80 · official $291.81 (match) · 148 history records