Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21af…e761 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$770 (-37%) realized −$770 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$653
other 31% −$603
sports 20% −$174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 31% -17.2%
≤30d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 31% -17.2%
≤90d 13 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 31% -17.2%
all 13 -17.0% -24.9% 31% 31% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 31% -17.2%
10% -32.1% 31% -25.2%
15% -38.7% 31% -32.4%
20% -44.7% 31% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -94% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$96 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$770
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $26 −$2 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 27 $203 +$214 +105%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W Jun 27 $204 +$440 +216%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $10 +$16 +154%
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
United States to win the second half? Jun 26 $203 −$200 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $101 −$64 -63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$101 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $300.00 · 24 history records