Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21ae…93cc crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 547d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$91 (+5%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate47%24W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$7
politics 32% $0
other 4% $0
sports 3% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.5% -20.8% 44% 44% -15.3%
≤30d 18 -12.5% -20.8% 44% 44% -15.3%
≤90d 33 -19.9% -27.6% 39% 36% -21.0%
all 51 -13.3% -21.6% 47% 27% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 27% -11.1%
10% -29.1% 27% -19.6%
15% -35.9% 27% -27.4%
20% -42.2% 27% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

547d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses24 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage547d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$19 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$22 +84%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +82%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$21 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$35 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 07 $27 −$27 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 07 $25 −$25 -99%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 07 $66 −$24 -37%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 07 $26 +$21 +83%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 07 $26 +$21 +81%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 07 $26 +$21 +80%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 07 $26 +$20 +77%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Ostrava: Tom Gentzsch vs Rudolf Molleker May 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco Gauff Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 27 $101 $0 -0%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar Apr 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 27 $93 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 18 $20 +$17 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Feb 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? Dec 10 $11 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 10 $108 +$104 +96%
Netherlands Parliamentary Election: FVD vs SP Nov 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the Maryland governor race in 2026? Oct 31 $11 −$1 -4%
Will Barcelona finish in the top 4 of the La Liga 2025–26 standings? Oct 14 $13 −$1 -10%
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Sep 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in 2025? Sep 01 $12 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win The Bronx in the New York City Mayoral Democrati Jul 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will LDP hold the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Jul 02 $12 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? May 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $507 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $45 47m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $47 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.61 · official $11.61 (match) · 133 history records