Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21ad…dffe
sports · 271 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,931 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,931 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$5,931
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses137 / 426
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions1
Markets (closed)563 / 271
History coverage34d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day99.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 563 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,664
7 days−$3,906
14 days−$3,414
30 days−$3,974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 37¢ 36¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B M80 23¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
CA Grau vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings Chennai Super Kings 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs Solary 51¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Paris: Talia Gibson vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich Talia Gibson 38¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? No 55¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-13? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
CA Grau vs. CS Cienciano: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 7AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$2,226
crypto 15% −$78
other 10% −$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 46m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 47m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 48m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 48m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 48m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 50m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 50m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 50m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 50m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $2 50m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 62¢ $3 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $3 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $3 6h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 -97.1% -97.4% 2% 2% -82.4%
≤30d 335 -88.9% -90.0% 6% 6% -54.5%
≤90d 563 -53.0% -57.5% 24% 21% -41.2%
all 563 -53.0% -57.5% 24% 21% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover99.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.5% 21% -41.2%
10% ← realistic here -61.6% 17% -46.8%
15% -65.3% 15% -51.9%
20% -68.7% 12% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.02 · official $31.02 (match) · 3500 history records