Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x21ab…d1da other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$197 (-29%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$347
7 days+$319
14 days+$150
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$82
crypto 27% +$95
sports 4% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.3% +16.1% 75% 75% +48.8%
≤30d 6 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 50% +10.9%
≤90d 6 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 50% +10.9%
all 6 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 50% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 50% +10.9%
10% -30.0% 50% +0.3%
15% -36.8% 50% -9.4%
20% -43.0% 33% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$66 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $130 +$49 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $53 +$46 +87%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $286 +$251 +88%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 −$69 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 99¢ $538 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $286 3h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $71 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records