Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21aa…fea9 weather 474 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$479 (-8%) realized −$480 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate62%274W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$74
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 41% +$81
sports 40% −$56
other 9% −$125
tech 4% −$45
crypto 4% −$161
finance 2% −$3
politics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -5.9% -14.8% 48% 28% -19.0%
≤30d 240 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 29% -10.7%
≤90d 442 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 30% -14.1%
all 442 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 30% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 30% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 15% -22.3%
15% -31.6% 8% -29.8%
20% -38.3% 5% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$480
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses274 / 168
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions32
Markets (closed)442 / 474
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $128? No 20¢ 36¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+77%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Down 57¢ 90¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+59%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Down 42¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $288 Week of June 15 2026? No 71¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 15 above $60? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Down 54¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 Week of June 15 2026? No 67¢ 61¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 80¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June? No 90¢ 87¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of June? No 23¢ 21¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Down 86¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of June 15 2026? No 79¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in June? No 64¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $220 Week of June 15 2026? No 74¢ 87¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of June 15 2026? No 62¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 15 2026? No 80¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? No 80¢ 46¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $385 Week of June 15 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026? No 64¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $284 Week of June 15 2026? No 71¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $82.50 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 28¢ 13¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-54%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 Week of June 15 2026? No 43¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 67¢ 63¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 15 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -41%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $248 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -27%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +21%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Meta (META) close above $590 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -36%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of June? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -11%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $235-$240 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $98 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -92%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $122 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $355-$360 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $8 −$1 -15%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $410? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $360-$365 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $11 −$7 -59%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $415? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at $400-$405 on the final day of trading of th Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $580? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $210? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $420? Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $390? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 8 above $380? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +29%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$5 -42%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 21¢ $0 11m
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? SELL No 2¢ $0 11m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 70¢ $0 18m
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 40¢ $2 18m
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $82.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 49m
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 63¢ $1 51m
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 66¢ $2 52m
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $300 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 26¢ $0 53m
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 10¢ $1 53m
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 9¢ $0 57m
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in June? SELL No 61¢ $1 57m
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $107.50 Week of June 15 BUY No 80¢ $2 58m
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 8¢ $0 58m
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 71¢ $0 58m
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 8¢ $0 58m
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 7¢ $0 1h
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 69¢ $0 1h
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 69¢ $0 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 14¢ $0 1h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 1h
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $128? BUY No 20¢ $4 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 64¢ $2 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 17¢ $0 1h
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 26¢ $4 1h
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 25¢ $0 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $300 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 61¢ $2 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 28¢ $4 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 16? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.16 · official $82.97 (match) · 3500 history records