Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a9…4636 crypto 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%112W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$32
14 days+$38
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$53
sports 31% $0
other 21% +$50
politics 2% −$50
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.0% -9.5% 52% 35% -6.3%
≤30d 76 -1.6% -11.0% 57% 41% -5.8%
≤90d 149 -19.9% -27.5% 46% 35% -11.6%
all 242 -17.0% -24.9% 46% 34% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 34% -11.0%
10% -32.1% 25% -19.5%
15% -38.6% 20% -27.3%
20% -44.7% 17% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses112 / 130
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)242 / 249
History coverage96d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $161 +$34 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$7 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $152 −$18 -12%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +228%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 +$13 +1290%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 607 history records