Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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21 0x21a7…748b crypto 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1,490 (-12%) realized −$1,450 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate84%152W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$21
crypto 16% −$1,484
world 1% −$39
politics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$5
sports 0% +$2
weather 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.8% -39.2% 11% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -8.5% -17.2% 41% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 80 +4.9% -5.1% 72% 10% -9.7%
all 182 +5.2% -4.8% 84% 14% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 14% -20.6%
10% -13.9% 7% -28.2%
15% -22.2% 5% -35.1%
20% -29.8% 5% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$51 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$1,450
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses152 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)182 / 207
History coverage131d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $42 $79 +$37 (+87%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 6¢ $42 $5 −$37 (-87%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 39¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 49¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $857 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,354 −$5 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,356 −$5 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,361 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,368 −$5 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 30 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$2 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 18 $1 +$3 +296%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 12 $2 −$1 -51%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 29 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - April 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 15 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $854 1m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $857 8m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,349 21m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,354 28m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,351 35m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,356 45m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,357 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,361 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,363 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,368 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Wi BUY 16¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 16d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 10¢ $2 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 26d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 32d
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 32d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 32d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 32d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.72 · official $108.72 (match) · 450 history records