Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
21 0x21a6…6ca4 crypto 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$11 (-7%) realized −$6 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%32W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$3
crypto 41% −$8
other 7% $0
world 6% −$4
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +24.4% +12.6% 50% 50% +9.0%
≤30d 5 -7.8% -16.6% 40% 40% -3.9%
≤90d 70 +22.2% +10.6% 46% 41% -13.1%
all 70 +22.2% +10.6% 46% 41% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 41% -13.1%
10% -0.0% 37% -21.4%
15% -9.7% 30% -29.0%
20% -18.5% 24% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses32 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 39¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 5¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +111%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$2 -63%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $1 $0 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $1 $0 +44%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas May 16 $2 $0 +24%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Andrea May 05 $1 +$2 +165%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 04 $1 $0 +12%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 03 $5 +$1 +11%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 27 $5 +$1 +17%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 27 $2 +$1 +38%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 20 $1 +$2 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Apr 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Predators vs. Ducks Apr 08 $54 −$1 -1%
Panthers vs. Canadiens Apr 08 $1 +$2 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 01 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 01 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$3 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 31 $2 +$5 +228%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $4 26h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $1 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 23d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 23d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? BUY Up 26¢ $1 27d
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas SELL James Duckworth 49¢ $2 30d
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas BUY James Duckworth 39¢ $2 30d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 4¢ $1 37d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra BUY Solana Sierra 16¢ $1 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 11¢ $1 39d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Andrea BUY Andrea Pellegrino 37¢ $1 41d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 36¢ $1 41d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 42d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 42d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY No 39¢ $1 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 43d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Wild 37¢ $1 43d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste SELL Belinda Bencic 23¢ $1 49d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Belinda Bencic 18¢ $1 49d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste SELL Belinda Bencic 43¢ $3 49d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Belinda Bencic 33¢ $2 49d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste SELL Hailey Baptiste 48¢ $2 49d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Hailey Baptiste 44¢ $1 49d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Hailey Baptiste 55¢ $1 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.42 · official $2.42 (match) · 149 history records