Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

21
0x21a6…7442
sports · 65 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$473 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$298 · open +$175
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,025
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$175
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses25 / 9
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions31
Markets (closed)34 / 65
History coverage3d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day90.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 31 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$298
14 days+$298
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 43¢ 100¢ $100 $230 +$130 (+130%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 79¢ 78¢ $213 $209 −$4 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $182 $182 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 27¢ $75 $163 +$88 (+117%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $135 $135 −$1 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $103 $105 +$1 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $72 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $72 $72 +$0 (+0%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 69¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 28¢ $103 $60 −$43 (-42%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? No 100¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+31%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 50¢ 26¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 38¢ 39¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 78¢ 78¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $208 +$67 +32%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$10 +86%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $151 +$69 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 +$31 +62%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $62 +$60 +97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $82 +$41 +50%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $33 +$12 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$40 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $211 −$211 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $200 +$11 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $183 +$50 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$18 +36%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $76 +$31 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $33 +$13 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $40 +$22 +55%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $54 +$97 +180%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $52 +$56 +106%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$25 +165%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 +$7 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 +$12 +29%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$12 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$372
world 17% +$101
other 16% −$2
economics 6% $0
tech 3% +$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $47 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $15 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $48 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $50 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 79¢ $50 16m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $18 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $50 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 79¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 79¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 79¢ $32 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 80¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 80¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 64¢ $51 3h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $50 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 4h
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 4h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $4 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 68¢ $20 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +18.7% +7.4% 74% 62% +2.3%
≤30d 34 +18.7% +7.4% 74% 62% +2.3%
≤90d 34 +18.7% +7.4% 74% 62% +2.3%
all 34 +18.7% +7.4% 74% 62% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.4% 62% +2.3%
10% ← realistic here -2.9% 59% -7.5%
15% -12.3% 50% -16.4%
20% -20.9% 24% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,025.08 · official $2,025.12 (match) · 283 history records