Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a4…c85d crypto 1317 markets active 5d ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$736 (-10%) realized −$736 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%888W / 429L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$55
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$377
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -69.8% -72.7% 0% 0% -72.7%
≤30d 769 -4.3% -13.4% 72% 43% -12.7%
≤90d 1317 -8.4% -17.2% 67% 39% -14.3%
all 1317 -8.4% -17.2% 67% 39% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 39% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 20% -22.5%
15% -32.3% 12% -30.0%
20% -39.0% 8% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$736
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses888 / 429
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1317 / 1317
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1317 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -72%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -82%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$4 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$4 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$4 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 06 $6 −$4 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -90%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$4 -74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$3 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records