Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a3…eeb5 other 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,989 (-1%) realized −$1,989 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,219per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$20
14 days−$44
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$538
politics 41% −$100
sports 8% −$2,503
economics 2% −$1
culture 1% +$28
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
world 0% −$1
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 39 -1.0% -10.4% 13% 5% -9.7%
≤90d 107 -1.9% -11.2% 7% 3% -10.9%
all 168 +0.7% -8.9% 17% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 10% -10.4%
10% -17.6% 10% -19.0%
15% -25.6% 10% -26.8%
20% -32.9% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,725) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$22 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,989
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,219
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $4,680 −$7 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $2,257 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,466 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,167 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,053 −$3 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,788 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,617 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,342 −$5 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 13 $239 +$2 +1%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,755 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4,494 −$5 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 08 $1,725 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,571 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $7,052 −$8 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,410 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $853 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $52 +$45 +86%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $282 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $4,965 −$5 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $751 −$1 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $75 +$60 +79%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $704 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,482 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $2,458 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $3,338 −$4 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $40 +$18 +46%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $591 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $770 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $616 29m
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $617 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $807 2h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $808 3h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $364 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $364 2d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $447 3d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $448 3d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $581 4d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $582 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,165 4d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,167 4d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,032 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,034 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $964 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $965 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $936 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $937 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,018 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,019 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $896 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $898 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $931 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $933 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $239 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $996 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $943 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $944 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,223 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 596 history records