Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x21a2…866d sports 275 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 219d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$195 (+0%) realized +$196 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate74%202W / 71L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$6
14 days+$9
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$53
other 31% +$26
politics 13% +$6
world 2% +$96
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 38% 25% -7.5%
≤30d 21 +0.1% -9.5% 67% 14% -9.2%
≤90d 68 -5.9% -14.9% 71% 19% -9.3%
all 273 -2.6% -11.9% 74% 46% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 46% -9.2%
10% -20.3% 34% -17.9%
15% -28.0% 18% -25.8%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$196
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses202 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)273 / 275
History coverage220d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 93¢ $86 $84 −$1 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $65 +$9 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $127 +$3 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 25 $20 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $9 −$1 -15%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $1,961 −$6 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 23 $3,004 +$7 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $48 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $25 $0 +2%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $44 −$9 -20%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $152 +$3 +2%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $76 +$4 +5%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $74 +$6 +8%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 15 $1,437 +$6 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 14 $1,649 −$4 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 08 $494 +$2 +0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 02 $1,641 +$5 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 27 $1,122 +$1 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $836 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 24 $865 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $3,865 +$4 +0%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $244 +$1 +0%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $5 $0 +8%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 23 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $1,609 +$1 +0%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $2 +$1 +40%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 22 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $28 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $30 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $30 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $28 6h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $35 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 98¢ $59 6h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $12 6h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $25 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $35 6h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 6h
Will Viktor Gyökeres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 11h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 11h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $25 11h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 77¢ $13 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 7d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 98¢ $108 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 94¢ $11 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 90¢ $7 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 98¢ $98 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $39 26d
Will Qinwen Zheng win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 98¢ $20 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $21 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 26d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 66¢ $33 28d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 81¢ $29 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.75 · official $128.75 (match) · 3500 history records