Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a1…98be other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$14 (-18%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$2
sports 44% −$20
world 3% $0
politics 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 25% -54.9%
≤30d 12 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 25% -54.9%
≤90d 12 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 25% -54.9%
all 12 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 25% -54.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.6% 25% -54.9%
10% -39.1% 25% -59.2%
15% -45.0% 25% -63.2%
20% -50.4% 25% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -82% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)12 / 22
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Martin Landaluce 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +105%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +291%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $21 −$10 -47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 68¢ $1 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 43¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 4h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 4h
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5h
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 BUY No 58¢ $1 6h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 6h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 7h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $2 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 8h
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Jamie Mackenzie 49¢ $5 45h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 29¢ $10 45h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 71¢ $16 45h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 49¢ $11 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 37¢ $15 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.37 · official $13.37 · 35 history records