Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x21a0…5014 world 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$278 (-30%) realized −$170 · open −$108
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$204
7 days−$204
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$270
sports 6% $0
other 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -20.0% -27.6% 50% 50% -28.4%
≤90d 4 -32.9% -39.3% 50% 25% -32.2%
all 17 -28.3% -35.1% 29% 18% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 18% -30.7%
10% -41.3% 12% -37.3%
15% -47.0% 12% -43.4%
20% -52.2% 12% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$30 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$170
Unrealized−$108
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage124d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 54¢ 14¢ $145 $36 −$109 (-75%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 22 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $200 +$120 +60%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 26 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 28? Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 18 $35 −$35 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 16 $37 −$1 -3%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 05 $4 +$1 +19%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $22 +$66 +293%
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual Feb 28 $3 $0 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $15 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $15 −$5 -33%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Feb 25 $50 −$13 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 23m
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $203 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $1 9d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $319 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $145 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $39 87d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 91¢ $39 87d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 84¢ $36 98d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL No 62¢ $36 98d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY Yes $5 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $200 111d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 114d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY Yes $10 114d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $25 114d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 114d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 114d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? BUY Yes $8 114d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 28? BUY Yes $3 114d
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 BUY Yes 84¢ $4 114d
Counter-Strike: ENCE Academy vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qual BUY ENCE Academy 51¢ $3 114d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 114d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 115d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 116d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 116d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 116d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY Yes $5 116d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY No 64¢ $37 116d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $37 116d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.31 · official $91.22 (match) · 67 history records