Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x21a0…2c5e crypto 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$446 (+13%) realized +$446 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%35W / 17L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$111
14 days+$111
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$345
world 2% +$5
other 1% −$5
politics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 75% 50% -3.5%
≤30d 19 +7.5% -2.7% 84% 68% +0.4%
≤90d 52 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 52% -1.1%
all 52 -6.6% -15.5% 67% 52% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 52% -1.1%
10% -23.6% 29% -10.5%
15% -31.0% 15% -19.2%
20% -37.8% 6% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$446
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses35 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage36d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $204 +$47 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $401 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $179 +$57 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $355 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $204 +$44 +22%
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + AC Jun 27 $37 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $179 +$38 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 02 $76 +$22 +29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 31 $77 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 31 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 31 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $76 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 29 $76 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 27 $81 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $57 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 27 $52 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 27 $102 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 27 $76 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 27 $36 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $77 +$52 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $86 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $56 +$30 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 26 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 26 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $30 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 26 $6 −$5 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $66 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 26 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 26 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 26 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 26 $26 −$18 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 26 $26 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 26 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 26 $21 +$4 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $417 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $236 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $261 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $221 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 2h
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + AC SELL Yes 52¢ $33 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records