Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x219f…75e0 crypto 67 markets active 21h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$109 (-51%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$103
crypto 28% −$5
other 5% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -44.3% -49.6% 33% 33% -25.2%
≤30d 7 -36.7% -42.7% 43% 29% -23.0%
≤90d 65 -13.6% -21.8% 57% 42% -56.8%
all 65 -13.6% -21.8% 57% 42% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 42% -56.8%
10% -29.3% 23% -60.9%
15% -36.1% 17% -64.7%
20% -42.4% 9% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 67
History coverage35d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -71%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 22 $2 $0 +9%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 +9%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $1 $0 +21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $2 $0 +9%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Team Rey (BO3) - MPL Mala May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 16 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 16 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 16 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 16 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 16 $2 $0 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $1 $0 +28%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks May 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +20%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 16 $1 $0 +3%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 16 $1 $0 +7%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 16 $1 $0 +15%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-15? May 16 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Series May 15 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $2 −$1 -30%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 15 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 15 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 15 $2 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $12 20h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 32¢ $1 43h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 23¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 30d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $2 30d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 31d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Team Rey (BO3) - MPL Mala BUY Team Rey 85¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records