Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x219d…655e crypto 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$212 (-4%) realized −$212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate32%46W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$39
14 days−$41
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$341
other 1% −$15
sports 1% −$24
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -32.7% -39.1% 33% 0% -49.5%
≤30d 145 -45.8% -51.0% 32% 22% -16.5%
≤90d 145 -45.8% -51.0% 32% 22% -16.5%
all 145 -45.8% -51.0% 32% 22% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.0% 22% -16.5%
10% -55.7% 17% -24.5%
15% -60.0% 13% -31.8%
20% -63.9% 9% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$13 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses46 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage15d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $32 −$24 -74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $48 −$16 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $109 −$108 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $97 −$93 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $59 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $59 +$76 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $133 +$40 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $67 +$66 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $256 −$155 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $123 +$25 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $99 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$43 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $159 −$29 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $154 +$70 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $159 +$50 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$58 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $220 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $195 +$57 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $211 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $145 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $36 +$53 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $74 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $81 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 24m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 27m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 31m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 31m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $32 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $3 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 14d
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $109 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $97 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $67 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $29 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $29 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $42 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $29 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.89 · official $8.93 (match) · 371 history records