Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x219c…f943 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$94 (-8%) realized −$100 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$168
14 days−$91
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$55
other 3% −$28
crypto 1% −$4
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.9% -41.1% 20% 20% -36.2%
≤30d 12 -5.8% -14.7% 58% 42% -18.7%
≤90d 18 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 39% -18.8%
all 18 -10.6% -19.1% 56% 39% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 39% -18.8%
10% -26.8% 33% -26.6%
15% -33.9% 17% -33.7%
20% -40.4% 11% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$25 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage76d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $114 $115 +$1 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 55¢ 57¢ $101 $107 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $88 +$26 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $118 −$107 -91%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $180 −$30 -17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$28 -77%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $148 −$29 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 04 $107 +$41 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$9 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $93 +$27 +29%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $3 +$2 +71%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 25 $3 +$2 +57%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3? Apr 04 $3 $0 +4%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 10? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana reach $80 on April 2? Apr 03 $6 −$3 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 70¢ $114 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $101 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $9 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $88 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $60 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 35¢ $57 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 61¢ $119 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $148 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $148 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $117 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $8 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $109 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $120 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? SELL No 99¢ $120 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 84¢ $8 15d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $99 17d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 77¢ $93 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $7 19d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $6 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $4 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $4 26d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 51¢ $3 26d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 58¢ $4 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up $1 37d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $1 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.31 · official $222.31 (match) · 42 history records