Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:30:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x219b…17ce sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$8 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$6
other 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +28.2% +16.0% 50% 50% +61.3%
≤30d 2 +28.2% +16.0% 50% 50% +61.3%
≤90d 2 +28.2% +16.0% 50% 50% +61.3%
all 2 +28.2% +16.0% 50% 50% +61.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.0% 50% +61.3%
10% +4.9% 50% +45.9%
15% -5.2% 50% +31.8%
20% -14.5% 50% +18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +75% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zimbabwe win? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Mwendwa Mbithi 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Cary: Daniil Glinka vs Aidan Mayo Aidan Mayo 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$1 -12%
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $1 +$2 +156%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cary: Daniil Glinka vs Aidan Mayo BUY Aidan Mayo 40¢ $8 36m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 55¢ $2 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 55¢ $30 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 53¢ $30 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 52¢ $29 2h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 52¢ $30 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Chicago White Sox 42¢ $29 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $31 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Chicago White Sox 42¢ $28 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $31 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 6h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Dayana Yastremska 39¢ $1 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Dayana Yastremska 39¢ $1 7h
Will Zimbabwe win? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.32 · official $1.01 (match) · 16 history records