Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
21 0x219a…a647 other 1245 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$246 (-0%) realized −$219 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate73%896W / 325L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$2,203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days+$103
14 days+$187
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$258
sports 10% −$221
world 1% +$37
crypto 0% −$75
politics 0% −$13
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.8% -11.2% 70% 63% -6.2%
≤30d 162 +1.9% -7.8% 77% 59% -8.1%
≤90d 469 +0.5% -9.1% 78% 60% -8.6%
all 1221 -3.1% -12.3% 73% 51% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 51% -9.9%
10% -20.7% 27% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 16% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$42 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$2,203
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses896 / 325
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1221 / 1245
History coverage542d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 92¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 97¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 87¢ 88¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan finish last in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 67¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 70¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 78¢ 74¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 88¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 80¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Mbappe 63¢ 55¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 55¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 50¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 35¢ 28¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 +$40 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$49 -49%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $202 +$12 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$21 -21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$5 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $132 −$28 -21%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 +$28 +28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$28 +27%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 10 $101 −$88 -88%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Central African Republic win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw? Jun 09 $62 +$6 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $202 +$2 +1%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $102 −$7 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$15 +14%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $201 −$3 -1%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $100 +$16 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $201 +$16 +8%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $40 1h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $101 15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $30 24h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $101 32h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $201 33h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $52 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 36h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 87¢ $100 37h
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane BUY Mbappe 63¢ $101 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 45h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $100 45h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 74¢ $214 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 68¢ $79 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $101 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $100 3d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 59¢ $106 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $101 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $104 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $101 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $129 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,202.82 · official $2,202.84 (match) · 2781 history records