Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
21 0x2194…903b crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$585 (+1%) realized +$795 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate81%137W / 33L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$216
other 1% −$45
sports 0% +$1
world 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
politics 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.0% +2.2% 82% 18% -14.8%
≤30d 31 +8.1% -2.2% 90% 29% -10.7%
≤90d 32 +8.3% -2.0% 91% 31% -10.6%
all 170 +22.6% +11.0% 81% 16% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.0% 16% -8.9%
10% +0.3% 9% -17.6%
15% -9.3% 8% -25.6%
20% -18.2% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$579) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$88 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$795
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses137 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)170 / 172
History coverage238d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$51 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$21 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $142 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 29 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $229 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 28 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 28 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 26 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 26 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 26 $47 −$42 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 26 $173 +$19 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 21 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 21 $35 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 21 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 21 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 21 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 27 $569 −$37 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 19 $74 +$26 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 15 $475 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jan 15 $415 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 15 $399 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 15 $595 +$24 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 14 $372 +$19 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 14 $354 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 14 $656 −$302 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 14 $619 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 14 $567 +$28 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 14 $682 +$34 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 14 $500 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 14 $540 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 13 $507 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 13 $956 −$478 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 13 $956 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 13 $911 +$46 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $29 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 1927 history records