Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
21 0x2193…f665 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$88 (+55%) realized +$92 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$35
politics 49% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+81.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +100.9% +81.8% 100% 100% +61.3%
≤30d 3 +100.9% +81.8% 100% 100% +61.3%
≤90d 3 +100.9% +81.8% 100% 100% +61.3%
all 3 +100.9% +81.8% 100% 100% +61.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.8% 100% +61.3%
10% +64.4% 67% +45.9%
15% +48.5% 67% +31.8%
20% +34.0% 67% +18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 62¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? No 80¢ 71¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 26 $14 +$27 +185%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $44 +$9 +21%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 23 $54 +$52 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.19 · official $43.19 (match) · 9 history records