Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0

score

21 0x2193…e6ca sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$4,469 (+23%) realized +$4,607 · open −$138

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip

Net edge+3%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown49%max

Avg bet$621per market

Trades / day12.8pace

Fees−$202est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$4,650now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+11.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+23.5%	+11.7%	45%	36%	+26.3%
≤30d	22	+23.5%	+11.7%	45%	36%	+26.3%
≤90d	22	+23.5%	+11.7%	45%	36%	+26.3%
all	22	+23.5%	+11.7%	45%	36%	+26.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.7%	36%	+26.3%
10%	+1.0%	36%	+14.2%
15%	-8.7%	36%	+3.2%
20%	-17.7%	32%	-7.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,000) neutral

Persistence

early -35% → late +82% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$891 vs −$393 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$4,650

Realized+$4,607

Unrealized−$138

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$202

Open positions5

Markets (closed)22 / 31

History coverage4d

Avg bet$621

Trades / day12.8

Drawdown49%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	13¢	$1,501	$1,667	+$166 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$1,500	$1,494	−$6 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1,500	$1,487	−$13 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Qatar	4¢	0¢	$99	$1	−$98 (-99%)
Spread: Canada (-4.5)	Qatar	30¢	0¢	$188	$0	−$188 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$1,019	+$2,796	+274%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$1,015	−$1,000	-99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$1,017	+$1,256	+124%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$815	+$1,423	+174%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Jun 17	$205	−$200	-98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$202	−$200	-99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$1,024	−$1,000	-98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$103	+$689	+670%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$807	+$319	+40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Jun 17	$205	−$200	-98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$1,019	+$1,219	+120%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$206	−$200	-97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$1,015	−$1,000	-98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$51	+$1	+1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand?	Jun 16	$51	−$50	-97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$205	−$200	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$204	+$3	+2%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 15	$509	−$500	-98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay?	Jun 15	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$510	+$917	+180%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$101	−$62	-62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$304	+$284	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1,026	5m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$514	6m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1,542	6m
Spread: Canada (-4.5)	BUY Qatar	30¢	$192	45m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	12¢	$513	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	4¢	$102	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	SELL Canada	96¢	$4,446	1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Canada	56¢	$2,634	2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$3,815	3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	25¢	$511	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	25¢	$102	4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	28¢	$406	4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	51¢	$1,015	8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Colombia	44¢	$1,017	21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,238	22h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	14¢	$205	24h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	59¢	$202	24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	36¢	$815	24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1,027	26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$512	27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$511	28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	SELL Yes	64¢	$791	29h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	30h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Co	BUY	20¢	$205	41h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will P	BUY	40¢	$407	41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,126	41h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$807	44h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$205	44h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	83¢	$2,238	45h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	39¢	$509	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,649.74 · official $4,649.74 (match) · 53 history records