Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
21 0x218f…91f7 crypto 1438 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-2%) realized −$136 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%1386W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$12
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$145
world 23% −$26
other 12% +$9
economics 3% −$47
tech 2% −$12
politics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 35 -7.1% -15.9% 14% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 1437 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -11.0%
all 1437 -0.5% -10.0% 96% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 0% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -19.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1386 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1437 / 1438
History coverage70d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 70¢ 46¢ $140 $93 −$47 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $499 +$3 +1%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $170 +$4 +3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $471 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $297 −$17 -6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $21 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $76 −$10 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $418 −$1 -0%
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $130 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $134 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $32 −$8 -25%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 01 $154 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 01 $154 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $310 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 26 $75 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 26 $76 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 25 $76 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - May 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 23 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $76 52m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $118 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 39¢ $78 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $112 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 60¢ $12 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 60¢ $12 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $32 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $32 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $106 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $106 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $139 7d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $152 7d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $140 7d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 74¢ $148 8d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $175 8d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $170 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $38 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 68¢ $88 8d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $88 8d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $148 8d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $38 9d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $45 9d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $20 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $9 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $5 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $59 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $34 10d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $130 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.00 · official $93.00 (match) · 2974 history records