Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:32:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x218b…625a crypto 594 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,944 (-11%) realized −$3,944 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%298W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Fees−$494est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days−$9
14 days+$111
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3,586
crypto 20% −$513
other 0% +$9
weather 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -0.6% -10.0% 59% 45% -9.7%
≤30d 181 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 39% -7.2%
≤90d 594 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 35% -20.2%
all 594 -6.1% -15.0% 50% 35% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 35% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 26% -27.9%
15% -30.6% 15% -34.8%
20% -37.4% 12% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$46 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,944
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses298 / 296
Est. fees paid−$494
Open positions0
Markets (closed)594 / 594
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 594 Trades
no open positions (180 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $93 +$57 +61%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $714 +$46 +6%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $128 +$23 +18%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $78 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $80 +$28 +35%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 27 $82 +$18 +22%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $113 −$20 -18%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $80 +$29 +36%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $165 +$17 +10%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $29 −$4 -14%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs Clutchain Female (BO3) - Rainhas do C Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $25 +$16 +65%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $17 +$23 +136%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $43 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $4 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $14 +$5 +38%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $4 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $24 +$6 +26%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Jun 25 $8 +$6 +78%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $314 −$6 -2%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $11 +$30 +270%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $147 +$53 +36%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $128 +$22 +18%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $14 +$4 +25%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $117 −$17 -15%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $51 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $17 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $11 +$14 +123%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $425 +$73 +17%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $37 +$4 +12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $76 +$91 +119%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $186 −$86 -46%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $165 −$40 -24%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 +$6 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $191 +$65 +34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $11 −$5 -43%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $35 +$5 +13%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $35 +$25 +72%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $69 −$59 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $75 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $233 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $2 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $185 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $144 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $129 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $181 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $93 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $51 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $168 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $4 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $4 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 88¢ $88 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $232 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $28 2h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 58¢ $22 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 62¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 50¢ $26 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL Acend 35¢ $32 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 22¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 40¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 40¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 40¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Acend 40¢ $4 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL ECHO 69¢ $35 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 56¢ $29 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL ECHO 40¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner SELL ECHO 40¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 28¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records