Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
21 0x218a…d85b world 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate25%10W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$4
other 40% −$5
sports 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 28 -3.3% -12.5% 21% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 34 -5.8% -14.8% 24% 3% -9.7%
all 40 -12.2% -20.6% 25% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 5% -10.1%
10% -28.2% 2% -18.7%
15% -35.1% 2% -26.6%
20% -41.5% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage526d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $19 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $91 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $71 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $28 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $36 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $9 −$6 -73%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $51 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $2 $0 -23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $61 +$4 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $10 $0 -4%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $477 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $227 +$2 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $226 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 11 $194 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? Feb 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will the Chiefs beat the Texans by 9 or more points? Feb 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump attend the launch? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jayden Daniels score a touchdown? Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Vikings beat the Rams by 3 or more points? Jan 14 $6 +$6 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $27 19m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $6 19m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $3 19m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $12 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $16 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $17 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $31 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $34 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records